Contemplating a Future Without Mining: A Return to the Neolithic?
The concept of 'renewables' inherently relies on mining, a practice currently intensified by the unsustainable use of fossil fuels. Despite this, proponents of green technologies maintain a vision that we can transition the extraction of critical minerals to electric methods, thereby perpetuating our existing civilizational model under a guise of sustainability. However, this perspective significantly underestimates the complexities and real challenges involved, diverging sharply from a genuinely sustainable trajectory.
Before we explore the notion of leveraging renewable energy technologies to sustain the extraction of metals from the Earth’s crust, we must first address the environmental implications of such activities. In this context, it’s crucial to highlight the profound and intricate link between mining and the combustion of fossil fuels—a relationship that is as fascinating as it is catastrophic, illustrating a complex symbiosis of technologies.
It may not be an overstatement to suggest that the phrase "building a mine" serves as a euphemism for environmental devastation on an industrial scale. The process begins with the destruction of a living habitat—a verdant canopy is cleared away using massive harvesting machines, all of which run on diesel fuel due to the absence of electrical power sources suitable for such heavy-duty tasks. Subsequently, diesel-powered excavators and bulldozers are employed to construct access roads to the future mining site. Following this, a convoy of trucks, also diesel-fueled, is tasked with transporting the removed logs. The distances and loads involved typically exceed the capabilities of current electric vehicles, further entrenching the reliance on fossil fuels.
Once the site is stripped of life and the topsoil is either removed or destroyed, explosives are deployed to blast through the rock layers concealing the sought-after ores. This step often involves removing and pulverizing thousands of feet of hard stone, which is subsequently used to reinforce the newly constructed dirt roads. In some instances, over a mile of rock must be excavated before any actual mineral extraction can begin. This preparatory phase can extend for years, or even a decade, until the necessary mining equipment finally arrives on site, along with the requisite power lines to operate stationary machinery. In the absence of nearby power sources, a power generation facility must be constructed—typically relying on fossil fuels due to their high energy density.
When the mining operations commence, diesel-powered excavators and dump trucks start the laborious task of shoveling, collaborating with explosives experts to progressively expose each layer of ore. It’s important to note that the industry has moved away from pursuing high-grade metal deposits in deep mine shafts—those reserves are depleted. Modern mining operations increasingly rely on processing vast quantities of ore with ever-diminishing metal-to-rock ratios, necessitating the creation of enormous open pits comparable in size to the Grand Canyon. The ores, hauled up by diesel trucks, are then crushed into a fine powder by electric grinding machines and mixed with harsh chemicals, such as sulfuric acid (a byproduct of refining oil), to leach out the metals. The resulting metal salts, the final product of this extraction process, leave behind massive piles of toxic tailings—yet another environmental hazard. This entire endeavor is to exploit a finite resource before moving on to the next site.
No wonder people around the world oppose even the idea of a mine being opened in their neighborhood: living downstream any such operation is a disadvantageous proposition, to say the least. Rivers, lakes and groundwater often get contaminated with heavy metals and poisonous chemicals, making the water unsafe for even using in people’s backyard gardens. It also leads to sinkholes, erosion, increased noise and dust levels, biodiversity loss and habitat fragmentation. Mines also compete for water with local communities, and tend to increase worker exploitation in the area. ‘Not in my backyard’ is not just a fancy slogan for local communities, but a matter of existential nature.
If all of this hasn't yet dampened your enthusiasm for mineral extraction, you might wonder: why not power these operations with "renewable" electricity? Well, let’s consider which parts could feasibly use such power. Excavators? Perhaps in a coal mine that is extracting a soft seam of pure lignite. However, the metals required for renewable technologies are often encased in hard rock, necessitating the use of heavy machinery like caterpillar trucks that move massive boulders.
What about trucks, then? Certainly, in the context of a clay or limestone mine located near the surface on a hillside, this might work. Electric dumper trucks are specifically designed for this scenario: loaded at the top of a hill and driven downhill to a valley where the materials are used in cement production. The gravity-assisted descent is enough to recharge the batteries, making the trip back up to the mine practically free. However, in an open pit mine, the situation is reversed—you descend into the pit empty and ascend fully loaded with heavy ores, which is the exact opposite of what is necessary for charging the batteries during the descent.
This implies that to effectively use electric trucks in such environments, you would need substantial installations of solar panels and wind turbines near the pit. These trucks would then spend at least half of their operational time recharging, a significant logistical and economic challenge.
Apart from the immediate concern about the economic feasibility of such operations, this situation introduces a more troubling concept: resource cannibalism. Currently, mining operations primarily use diesel-powered machinery made from plentiful steel, consuming vast quantities of fossil fuels. This approach requires minimal investment in metals like copper, lithium, and cobalt that are crucial for what’s termed the “energy transition.”
However, if we were to shift towards using renewable energy sources and electric trucks for mining—assuming it’s technically possible—we’d find ourselves in a paradox. We would need to incorporate significant quantities of these precious metals into the mining equipment itself, and these materials would need to be replaced multiple times throughout the equipment's lifecycle. This creates a scenario where mining operations are in direct competition for the metals they aim to extract.
Additionally, consider the significant role of long-distance transportation. Mines are typically situated far from industrial centers where refining, smelting, and manufacturing occur. Assuming these logistics could be electrified—a doubtful proposition—we’d see an even greater portion of vital metals like lithium, copper, cobalt, and aluminum being used just to extract more metals. This leads to a cyclical dependency, using more renewables to power more mining operations, needed to build more electric vehicles, all for extracting more ores.
The crux of the issue is the depletion of rich metal deposits. As these are exhausted, the industry is forced to exploit ores of ever-decreasing quality, yielding lower amounts of metal for the same volume of ore. Similar to the scenario with fossil fuels, this results in a consistently rising energy demand per ton of metal produced. This phenomenon, which I’ve referred to as energy cannibalism, is exacerbated by electrification. The demand for increasingly scarce fuels will be compounded by their use in ever more energy-intensive mining projects. Thus, not only will energy be cannibalized by oil wells, but metal mines will also contribute to this vicious cycle. Energy cannibalism will worsen, consuming more energy and the very metals essential for sustaining the industry. This also holds true for other energy-intensive ventures like fusion or the production of manufactured fuels such as hydrogen or synfuels.
You see, sustainability extends far beyond just cutting CO2 emissions—crucial as that is. To start, mining is an inherently devastating process, much like the extraction of fossil fuels. Over time, all mining sites are destined to deplete, necessitating the opening of new ones, often further from civilization and involving increasingly poorer quality resources. This inevitably accelerates energy and material cannibalism—a phenomenon driven by the immutable laws of geology and physics.
Furthermore, all mining operations rely on the combustion of fossil fuels due to the high energy density required for such intense labor. This not only increases emissions but also highlights a grim irony: “renewables” are deeply dependent on another set of finite resources—fossil fuels themselves.
In a twist of irony, the so-called “clean” technologies aim to replace the very fuels that enable their creation. Thus, the notion of making mining “sustainable” is logically flawed and borders on being an insult to our intelligence.
The situation worsens as ore degradation leads to an exponential increase in energy consumption. The energy required to extract Earth's resources is set to double every few decades, potentially driving civilization into an untenable position. Resorting to more technology to tackle this "problem" only exacerbates it, as each technological advance adds complexity, thereby increasing material and energy demands. Technology cannot recreate the rich mineral reserves or the fossil fuels that have fueled this past couple of centuries’ unprecedented boom. We can’t discover and exploit a third hemisphere—there isn’t one.
Despite all efforts, we may find ourselves rapidly reaching a point where the global economy can no longer afford simultaneous metal mining and oil drilling. This will likely lead to a sharp decline in the availability of both renewables (regardless of “sustainable” mining practices) and oil. Contrary to popular belief, this won’t result in soaring prices for oil or copper. Instead, we’ll face an affordability crisis.
The competition for energy and materials between industries that produce them and those that consume them will intensify. Consequently, companies will be forced to allocate an increasing portion of their revenue to fuels and electricity, while simultaneously suppressing wages to maintain competitiveness. As a result, consumers will face the same conundrum as the companies that employ them: the inability to afford new cars, refrigerators, homes, and the energy required to power them. With demand weakening, it may appear that the world no longer needs more oil and metals. To the uninformed economist, this will seem like the most severe recession ever seen, leading to a drop in raw material and energy prices and the halting of most new mining and drilling projects. Energy is the economy. Without energy, there is no economy, and no mining.
As a direct result of energy cannibalism, both the supply and demand for oil and metals will decline together, following a long and winding road downhill into the vast plains of a post-industrial age.
So, considering the trajectory of energy and resource cannibalism, it's not difficult to predict the future of technology as we approach the late 21st century. It seems increasingly likely that we are heading toward a steadfast deindustrialization of the global economy and a radical re-localization of essential production processes. Despite potentially abundant reserves of iron or aluminum (bauxite), we are already facing a shortage of affordable energy needed to process these materials. In 2021, iron ore accounted for 93.4% of all metals mined, all of which was transported and smelted using fossil fuels—primarily coal. However, without sufficient diesel fuel, the extensive reserves of iron and coal will likely remain untapped, buried under miles of rock with no feasible method to extract them. Essentially, no diesel means no coal extraction, and no coal means no steel production. This severe reduction in steel production will make it increasingly difficult to construct more mines, build railroads, establish processing plants, and even produce wind turbines. Without steel, there's no manufacturing, no construction, and no basis for maintaining a complex society.
Once large-scale coal and oil extraction ceases, our descendants will likely be compelled to revert to using charcoal for processing the scrap metals we leave behind. This shift would not only lead to rapid deforestation but also a drastic decline in metal production and recycling capabilities. I suspect that more than 90% of the materials currently in circulation will be lost during the gradual decline of modernity, as we will lack the capacity to process them effectively. Most of our metals will simply be left to deteriorate and rust where they lie.
Having already exhausted all easily accessible high-grade ores—those suitable for artisan mining and smelting techniques—our future generations will eventually find themselves with no viable resources to extract from the Earth, certainly not with primitive tools like pickaxes and ox-drawn carts. Initially, we might see the emergence of a vibrant scavenger economy, with individuals salvaging and repurposing whatever materials they can as modernity begins to crumble. However, as we progressively lose the ability to conduct metallurgy due to insufficient energy supplies, our children and grandchildren will face the complete disappearance of all our modern technologies. While there may be the occasional blacksmith, that will likely be the extent of their technological capabilities.
The decline into the Dark Ages following a collapse isn't attributed to diminished human intelligence, but rather to a reduction in complexity.
In contemplating a future without mining, it's challenging for contemporary minds to grasp the extent of the low-tech lifestyle that might ensue. Instead of envisioning bustling 18th-century cities poised for another wave of industrialization, we might need to consider a return to a Neolithic-like existence. However, this hypothetical future is complicated by factors like depleted wildlife and topsoil, a compromised climate, rising sea levels, and a landscape dotted with hazardous waste sites. Earth may struggle to sustain millions seeking to emulate ancient ways of life. But that's a discussion for another time.
Until then,
M